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Tutorials

An introductory tutorial for submitting to Challenge focused on aquatics theme: https://github.com/OlssonF/NEON-forecast-challenge-workshop. A webinar version of tutorial

More advanced tutorial for submitting to Challenge focused on the terrestrial theme: https://github.com/rqthomas/FluxCourseForecast

Other tutorial materials about ecological forecasting

Research from the Ecological Forecasting Initiative Research Coordination Network.

Ecological Forecasting

Dietze, M., E.P. White, A. Abeyta, C. Boettiger, N. Bueno Watts, C.C. Carey, R. Chaplin-Kramer, R.E. Emanuel, S.K. Morgan Ernest, R. Figueiredo, M.D, Gerst, L.R. Johnson, M.A. Kenney, J.S. McLachlan, I.C. Paschalidis, J.A. Peters, C.R. Rollinson, J. Simonis, K. Sullivan-Way, R. Q. Thomas, G.M. Wardle, A. Willson, J. Zwart. 2024. Near-term Ecological Forecasting for Climate Change Action. Nature Climate Change: 14: 1236–1244 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02182-0

Lewis, A., W. Woelmer, H. Wander, D. Howard, J. Smith, R. McClure, M. Lofton, N. Hammond, R. Corrigan, R.Q. Thomas, C.C. Carey. 2022. Increased adoption of best practices in ecological forecasting enables comparisons of forecastability across systems. Ecological Applications 32: e02500 https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.2500

Lewis, A. S. L., Rollinson, C. R., Allyn, A. J., Ashander, J., Brodie, S., Brookson, C. B., et al. (2023). The power of forecasts to advance ecological theory. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 14(3), 746–756. https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.13955

Malmborg, C. A., Willson, A. M., Bradley, L. M., Beatty, M. A., Klinges, D. H., Koren, G., Lewis, A. S. L., Oshinubi, K., & Woelmer, W. M. 2024. Defining model complexity: An ecological perspective. Meteorological Applications, 31(3), e2202. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2202

Manuscripts about the Challenge

Olsson, F., C.C. Carey, C. Boettiger, G. Harrison, R. Ladwig, M.F. Lapeyrolerie, A.S.L. Lewis, M.E. Lofton, F. Motealegre-Mora, J.S. Rebaey, C.J. Robbins. X. Yang, and R.Q. Thomas. What can we learn from 100,000 freshwater forecasts? A synthesis from the NEON Ecological Forecasting Challenge. Accepted at Ecological Applications. Pre-print: https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.171458144.44104603/v1

Thomas, R. Q., Boettiger, C., Carey, C. C., Dietze, M. C., Johnson, L. R., Kenney, M. A., et al. (2023). The NEON Ecological Forecasting Challenge. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 21(3), 112–113. https://doi.org/10.1002/fee.2616

Thomas, R.Q, R.P. McClure, T.N. Moore, W.M. Woelmer, C. Boettiger, R.J. Figueiredo, R.T. Hensley, C.C. Carey. Near-term forecasts of NEON lakes reveal gradients of environmental predictability across the U.S. Frontiers in Ecology and Environment 21: 220–226. https://doi.org/10.1002/fee.2623

Wheeler, K., M. Dietze, D. LeBauer, J. Peters, A.D. Richardson, R.Q. Thomas, K. Zhu, U. Bhat, S. Munch, R.F Buzbee, M. Chen, B. Goldstein, J.S. Guo, D. Hao, C. Jones, M. Kelly-Fair, H. Liu, C. Malmborg, N. Neupane. D. Pal, A. Ross, V. Shirey, Y. Song, M. Steen, E.A. Vance, W.M. Woelmer, J. Wynne and L. Zachmann. 2024. Predicting Spring Phenology in Deciduous Broadleaf Forests: An Open Community Forecast Challenge. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 345: 09810 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109810

Details about the standards used in the challenge

Dietze, M., R.Q. Thomas, J. Peters, C. Boettiger, A. Shiklomanov, and J. Ashander. 2023. A community convention for ecological forecasting: output files and metadata v1.0. Ecosphere 14: e4686 https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.4686

Educational manuscripts

Lewis, A.S.L., D.W. Howard, G. Koren, C. Kowalski, J. McLachlan, J.A. Peters, G. Smies, and O. Tabares. 2023. Ethics in ecological forecasting: four case-based teaching modules. Teaching Issues and Experiments in Ecology, Vol. 19: Practice #13. https://tiee.esa.org/vol/v19/issues/case_studies/lewis/abstract.html

Lofton, M.E., T.N. Moore, W.M. Woelmer, R.Q. Thomas, and C.C. Carey. 2024. A modular curriculum to teach undergraduates ecological forecasting improves student and instructor confidence in their data science skills. Bioscience: Awaiting issue. https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biae089

Moore, T.N., R.Q. Thomas, W.M. Woelmer, C.C Carey. 2022. Integrating ecological forecasting into undergraduate ecology curricula with an R Shiny application-based teaching module. Forecasting 4:604-633. https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast4030033

Olsson F, C. Boettiger, C.C. Carey, M. Lofton and R.Q. Thomas. 2024. Can you predict the future? A tutorial for the National Ecological Observatory Network Ecological Forecasting Challenge. Journal of Open Source Education 7: 259. https://doi.org/10.21105/jose.00259

Peters, J. and R.Q. Thomas. 2021. Going Virtual: What We Learned from the Ecological Forecasting Initiative Research Coordination Network Virtual Workshop. Bulletin of the Ecological Society of America 102: e01828 https://doi.org/10.1002/bes2.1828

Willson, A.M., H. Gallo, J.A. Peters, A. Abeyta, N. Bueno Watts, C.C. Carey, T.N. Moore, G. Smies, R.Q. Thomas, W.M. Woelmer, and J.S. McLachlan. 2023. Assessing opportunities and inequities in undergraduate ecological forecasting education. Ecology and Evolution 13: e10001. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.10001

Woelmer, W. M., Bradley, L. M., Haber, L. T., Klinges, D. H., Lewis, A. S. L., Mohr, E. J., et al. (2021). Ten simple rules for training yourself in an emerging field. PLOS Computational Biology, 17(10), e1009440. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009440

Woelmer, W.M., T.N. Moore, M.E. Lofton, R.Q. Thomas, and C.C. Carey. 2023. Embedding communication concepts in forecasting training increases students’ understanding of ecological uncertainty Ecosphere 14: e4628 https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.4628

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